Jeera yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.05% at Rs 20160, buoyed by short covering in the wake of recent declines attributed to weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Market participants observed a lack of robust engagement from international purchasers, as ample supplies and adequate inventory levels persisted in applying downward pressure on prices. Demand continues to be weak, as the majority of export needs are being met through current stockpiles.

Nevertheless, the drawbacks were constrained due to reduced arrivals during the Diwali holidays and a degree of buying interest at certain price levels. Support materialized following the GST Council’s decision to lower the tax rate to 5%, a move anticipated to enhance FMCG exports and stimulate domestic consumption. Farmers are said to possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with an estimated 16 lakh bags expected to remain as unsold inventory by the conclusion of the season. Production this year is projected to be approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in acreage. Gujarat’s production is anticipated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags.

Globally, cumin production is projected to reach 70–80 thousand tons in China, 9–10 thousand tons in Syria, 10–11 thousand tons in Turkey, and 10–12 thousand tons in Afghanistan. During the period from April to August 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 17.02% compared to the previous year, totaling 85,977.39 tonnes.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 16.17% decline in open interest to 840, alongside a modest price increase of Rs 10. Support stands at Rs 20070, while resistance is identified at Rs 20230, with the possibility of testing Rs 20290 in the event of an upside breakout.