Jeera prices declined by 0.25% to Rs 20,135, influenced by a downturn in export demand subsequent to the conclusion of the retail season and a lack of robust foreign buying interest. Market participants observed that ample supplies and sufficient existing stocks maintained a cautious stance among traders, while low arrivals during the Diwali holidays offered only marginal support. Demand has continued to be subdued, as the majority of export needs have been satisfied by existing inventories.

Nonetheless, the downside was limited due to opportunistic purchasing at reduced price points and the anticipation of a resurgence in domestic demand following the GST council’s decision to reduce the GST rate to 5%. This adjustment is expected to bolster exports related to FMCG and stimulate local consumption. On the supply side, it is estimated that farmers are holding approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags anticipated to be traded by the conclusion of the season, resulting in an expected carryover of nearly 16 lakh bags.

India’s production is anticipated to be in the range of 90–92 lakh bags this year, a decline from the previous year’s output of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is expected to contribute approximately 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is projected to produce around 48–50 lakh bags. Adverse weather conditions in China have led to a downward revision of output estimates to a range of 70,000–80,000 tons, while production levels in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan continue to be constrained.

Notwithstanding this, Indian export demand continues to exhibit weakness, with shipments from April to August 2025 declining by 17% year-on-year, totaling 85,977 tonnes. The market experienced a phase of long liquidation, evidenced by a 12.15% decline in open interest to 2,322, accompanied by a price decrease of Rs 50. Jeera exhibits support levels at Rs 20,050 and Rs 19,970, with resistance identified at Rs 20,270 and Rs 20,410.