Jeera yesterday concluded with a gain of 0.37% at Rs 20,175, driven by selective buying in the context of limited arrivals, while trading activity was muted owing to Diwali holidays in key markets. Support also emerged following the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate on spices to 5%, a strategic move anticipated to enhance FMCG exports and stimulate domestic consumption. Nonetheless, the potential for growth was limited by subdued export demand after the retail season ended and ongoing lack of engagement from foreign buyers.

Abundant supply conditions and adequate carryover stocks persist in applying downward pressure on prices, with reports indicating that farmers are retaining approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which merely 3–4 lakh bags are anticipated to be traded prior to the conclusion of the season. Production for the 2024–25 season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in the area under cultivation. Gujarat’s output is anticipated to be in the range of 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to fall between 48 and 50 lakh bags.

Globally, cumin production in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan has been impacted by unfavorable weather conditions; however, subdued foreign demand from India has constrained price increases. Jeera exports from April to August 2025 experienced a decline of 17.02%, totaling 85,977.39 tonnes compared to 103,614.50 tonnes in the same period the previous year; however, exports in August showed an increase of 3.24% year-on-year.

From a technical perspective, the market experienced short covering, evidenced by a 1.02% decline in open interest to 2,913, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 75. Jeera demonstrates support levels at Rs 20,030 and Rs 19,870, with resistance identified at Rs 20,320 and Rs 20,450. A breach of Rs 20,450 may enhance bullish momentum.