Jeera prices experienced a modest increase of 0.13% to Rs 19,155 yesterday, buoyed by short covering in the wake of recent declines caused by weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Market sentiment experienced a slight uptick following the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate on jeera to 5%. This adjustment offers relief to FMCG exporters and enhances expectations for improved domestic demand. Nevertheless, aggregate trade activity continues to be muted in the context of ample supplies and lackluster foreign demand.

Farmers currently retain approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with expectations that merely 3–4 lakh bags will be transacted prior to the season’s conclusion. This situation indicates a substantial carry-forward inventory of nearly 16 lakh bags into the subsequent year. In terms of production, India’s jeera output for the current season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in the area under cultivation. Gujarat’s production is anticipated to be in the range of 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to fall between 48 and 50 lakh bags.

Globally, production from competing regions such as China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan remains subdued due to adverse weather conditions; however, this has not yet resulted in a substantial increase in Indian exports. During the period of April to July 2025, jeera exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026 tonnes. Notably, shipments in July fell by 20.83% compared to the previous year.

From a technical perspective, the market experienced a slight uptick in fresh buying, evidenced by a 0.17% increase in open interest, reaching 3,582 contracts. Jeera currently exhibits support levels at Rs 19,020 and Rs 18,880, with resistance identified at Rs 19,300 and Rs 19,440.