Jeera concluded yesterday with a 0.53% increase, settling at Rs 18,945, driven by short covering after experiencing a prior correction attributed to subdued domestic and export demand in the wake of the retail season. The downside remained constrained, bolstered by the GST Council’s decision to reduce the GST rate to 5%, anticipated to enhance FMCG exports and stimulate domestic consumption. Market participants identified the conclusion of the retail season and ongoing inactivity from foreign buyers as significant contributors to the earlier price weakness.

Farmers presently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin; however, it is anticipated that only 3–4 lakh bags will be traded by the conclusion of the season, resulting in a carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. The current season is expected to achieve production levels akin to those of the previous year, bolstered by improved crop conditions and favorable sowing practices. Geopolitical disruptions in significant cumin-producing nations like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have led to a decrease in supplies; however, Indian exports continue to be constrained, impacting market sentiment.

Estimates indicate that cumin production in India for the current year may reach approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is projected to contribute 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to be between 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports from April to July 2025 experienced a decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026.35 tonnes compared to 91,070.02 tonnes in the previous year.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a decline in open interest of 1.9%, bringing it to 3,246. Support is identified at Rs 18,810, with a potential further test at Rs 18,670, while resistance appears to be at Rs 19,080, and a sustained movement above this level could lead to prices approaching Rs 19,210.