Jeera yesterday settled lower by -0.52% at Rs 19,010, influenced by subdued domestic and export demand after the conclusion of the retail season. Market participants attributed the decline to sluggish foreign buying interest and comfortable supplies, with existing stocks adequate to meet current demand. Farmers continue to retain approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only an estimated 3–4 lakh bags anticipated to be traded prior to the conclusion of the season, resulting in a substantial carry-forward inventory of nearly 16 lakh bags.
Production prospects appear stable, with estimates indicating 90–92 lakh bags of cumin for this year, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, supported by favorable sowing and crop conditions. Gujarat’s production is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is projected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. Globally, geopolitical disruptions have constrained supplies from significant producers like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan; however, India’s export demand continues to be subdued.
In China, unfavorable weather conditions have led to a reduction in output estimates to between 70,000 and 80,000 tons. Meanwhile, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are each anticipated to yield between 9,000 and 12,000 tons. During the period from April to July 2025, exports experienced a significant decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026.35 tonnes, in contrast to 91,070.02 tonnes recorded in the previous year. In July, exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 20.83%, totaling 13,778.60 tonnes, and saw a month-on-month decrease of 15.58% compared to June, indicative of subdued foreign demand.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 0.17% decrease in open interest, bringing it down to 3,531 contracts. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 18,940; a decline below this level could see prices testing Rs 18,850. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 19,110, with the possibility of a retest at Rs 19,190 should strength materialize.