Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.24% at Rs 19,110, influenced by subdued domestic and export demand after the retail season came to a close. The decline was chiefly influenced by a lack of buying interest from both domestic and international buyers, while sufficient existing inventories and ample supplies contributed to the prevailing bearish sentiment. Farmers currently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin; however, it is anticipated that only 3–4 lakh bags will be traded by the conclusion of the season, resulting in a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.

Despite the recent decline, the downside appears constrained, as the GST council’s decision to lower GST to 5% for FMCG and related exports is anticipated to bolster both domestic demand and exports. Current season production is projected at approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, attributed to diminished sowing areas. In Gujarat, cumin production is anticipated to reach 42–45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output may range from 48 to 50 lakh bags.

During the period from April to July 2025, jeera exports experienced a significant decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026.35 tonnes in comparison to the corresponding timeframe in 2024. In July, exports experienced a decline of 20.83% compared to the same month last year, totaling 13,778.60 tonnes, and a month-on-month decrease of 15.58% relative to June 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a decrease in open interest of 0.34%, bringing the total to 3,537 contracts. Jeera is currently encountering support at Rs 19,010, with the possibility of further declines testing the Rs 18,900 levels, while resistance is identified at Rs 19,290. A sustained move above this level may lead to prices approaching Rs 19,460.