Turmeric experienced an increase of 1.01% yesterday, closing at Rs 12,374, driven by supply-side concerns and crop damage that bolstered prices. Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has resulted in damage to approximately 15% of the standing turmeric crop, thereby constraining market availability. Nonetheless, the potential for further gains appears limited due to an increase in turmeric acreage this season, bolstered by favorable monsoon conditions. Forecast indicating normal to below-normal rainfall in September for certain regions of South India introduces a degree of uncertainty for agricultural producers, raising apprehensions regarding both crop yield and quality.

In Warangal, the stocks of turmeric held by farmers are nearly depleted, with no new arrivals in the past two days, contributing to the stability in prices. On the production front, preliminary estimates indicate that turmeric acreage could rise by 15–20% for 2024–25, with the total area recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, reflecting a 10% increase from last year’s 3 lakh hectares. At the Duggirala market, robust buyer interest persists, with new arrivals commanding higher premiums attributed to quality, while approximately 50–55% of the new crop has already been transacted.

Daily trade volumes persist at 1,000–1,200 bags, demonstrating resilience against seasonal slowdowns. Exports continue to provide support, with shipments increasing by 2.29% to 63,020 tonnes during the period of April to July 2025, compared to 61,609 tonnes in the previous year. In July, exports reached 15,070 tonnes, reflecting a year-on-year stability while exhibiting a 9.31% increase compared to June.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 0.87% decline in open interest to 14,895 contracts, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 124. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 12,244; a decline beneath this level could see prices testing Rs 12,114. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 12,476, with the possibility of an advance towards Rs 12,578 in the event of a breakout.