Turmeric yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.18% at Rs 12314, as selling pressure emerged amid expectations of increased acreage, bolstered by favorable rainfall this season. Nonetheless, the potential for decline was limited by reports indicating crop damage resulting from recent heavy rainfall, particularly in Nanded, where approximately 15% of the crop area has been impacted. Concerns have escalated following the IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September across various regions of South India.

Simultaneously, the stocks held by farmers in Warangal are approaching depletion, as there have been no new arrivals in the last two days, which further bolsters price levels. Preliminary estimates indicate that turmeric acreage could increase by 15-20% in 2024-25, as farmers transition from less profitable alternatives. The total area is projected to reach 3.30 lakh hectares, reflecting a 10% rise from the previous year.

At the Duggirala market, strong demand for fresh arrivals persists, with the new crop commanding premiums over older stock, reflecting a quality-driven purchasing behavior. Trade activity continues to exhibit robustness, averaging between 1,000 and 1,200 bags daily, with approximately 50 to 55 percent of the new crop already brought to market. Government procurement initiatives in Himachal Pradesh are anticipated to bolster support for farmers. During the period from April to July 2025, exports increased by 2.29% to 63,020.23 tonnes compared to the previous year. Although July exports experienced a slight decline of 0.27% month-on-month, they demonstrated a robust increase of 9.31% relative to June 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 0.37% to reach 16,285. Support is identified at Rs 12198, with further support at Rs 12084. Resistance is anticipated at Rs 12488, and a breakout above this level is likely to test Rs 12664.