Jeera yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.08% at Rs 19,530, influenced by subdued domestic and export demand as the retail season came to a close. The downside, however, appears constrained following the GST council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, a move anticipated to bolster both FMCG exports and domestic consumption.

Market participants noted that the decline was primarily influenced by a lack of robust foreign purchasing and adequate domestic inventories. Farmers currently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin; however, it is anticipated that only 3–4 lakh bags will be traded by the conclusion of the season, resulting in a carry-forward stock of roughly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to mirror last year’s figures, driven by favorable crop conditions and effective sowing practices.

Geopolitical disruptions in major jeera-producing nations like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have restricted supplies; however, subdued export demand from India persists in exerting pressure on market sentiment. Domestic cumin production is estimated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags this year, a decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is projected to yield between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is anticipated to produce between 48 and 50 lakh bags. Jeera exports from April to July 2025 experienced a significant decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026.35 tonnes in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year. In July, exports experienced a decline of 20.83% year-on-year and 15.58% month-on-month.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a decline in open interest of 5.9%, bringing it down to 3,591. Support is established at Rs 19,460, with additional declines possibly probing Rs 19,400. Resistance is identified at Rs 19,620, and a breakout above this level may propel prices toward Rs 19,720.